Miwok 2016 preparation

Here are some documents to help with Miwok 2016 race planning.

Miwok 2016 pace calculator

Click the link below. It will take you to dropbox. Dropbox may ask you to create an account or sign in. You don’t have to.  Click the ‘X’ to close the sign-in dialog.

Click ‘download’ in the right upper corner of dropbox and proceed to download. The file is an ‘ods’ spreadsheet file, openable in Apache Openoffice or MS Excel.  It won’t run in Google docs.  Please email me ASAP at dejswa@yahoo.com if you find any major incompatibilities.

Miwok Pace Spreadsheet in .ods format   opens in OpenOffice and newer Excel

Miwok Pace Spreadsheet in .xls format   opens in older and newer Excel and OpenOffice

Open the file. The spreadsheet is a bit chaotic but it’s the best I can do at this moment.  There are some extra calculations, scaling factors and stuff below the spreadsheet.  Don’t delete or modify them.  They may be referenced in the calculations and you may mess things up if you delete them.  Did not have time to clean up – may do so later.

There are two fields to enter. You have to enter a desired finishing time in fractional hours plus a predicted average aid station time in fractional minutes that will be used for each of the ten aid station breaks.  The aid station time you enter is the average time, not the total time for your aid station breaks so something like 1 to 10 minutes is what I’m expecting in this box.

Example

14.5 is 14 hr 30 minutes. 2.5 minutes is 2 minutes 30 seconds.

The entry fields are bordered in RED and the numbers you enter are in red.

Calculations are displayed in the spreadsheet and are either red or black. Red ones are calculated based on YOUR input data. Black ones are for REFERENCE and do not change.

Explanation of spreadsheet columns

1,2,3 – Aid station name, section distance, cumulative distance – self explanatory.  Colors  in column 1 indicate aid station features as noted.  These colors correspond to the modified race map that I reference.

4 – Section pace – CALCULATED – your average pace to maintain for the section in mm:ss format.

5 – Section elapsed time – CALCULATED – amount of time you will take on the section in h:mm format. Ex. 1.50 is 1 hr, 50 minutes.

6 – Aid station arrival time – CALCULATED – this is the time you will arrive at the aid station in hh:mm format. Should be the gun time or elapsed time since you started your watch at 0500hr.

7 – Minimum (grade adjusted, based on course model) aid station arrival for 15:30 (cutoff) finish time. This data is for you to compare your selection to the slowest possible pace.

8 – Minimum (linear, for lack of a better word) constant pace arrival times for a 15:30 finish. NOTE – for this constant ~15 min per mile pace you would NOT make the first cutoff at 1100hr at Tennessee Valley, second pass!!  This earlier than average pace cutoff is not because the first part of the course is easier, it’s because, per Tia, about everyone that was going to finish the race made the 1100hr time at Tennessee Valley pass 2 last year.

9 – Official race cutoff times – these are the 5 enforced cutoff times for the race. Note that these times are when you must LEAVE the aid station. Example – If you get to Bolinas, pass 2, at 1900 then you have 2 minutes before you must leave Bolinas. No returning to the aid station.

Explation of calculations – WARNING – TMI

Based on these data

http://www.ultralive.net/miwok/webcast.php

I sampled the section pace for 20 runners from the middle 80% of the finish time range, rejecting ones who had an extreme change in rank position between any two stations or a trend of large position changes (either late / slow start or severe bonk??).

The aid station time, was really unknown and prevented some accuracy, but first I gave them a sliding scale aid station time of from 2 to 5 minutes based on their normalized (with respect to the other runners) finishing time.

Next I normalized their pace to their finishing time and averaged all the normalized section paces. While fast runners certainly have a different profile of up and downhill pace management than slower runner as well as perhaps a different ‘bonk’ profile throughout the race, I did not have time to refine the process.  Thus everyone is averaged into one pace profile of 11 sections.
In addition, there are certainly many different grades within one section, so the section predicted pace is, of course, an average of that section.

Cardiac did not have a split time.  The Muir aid station data I got at ultralive.net is the sum of two extremes, a 1200 ft climb over 2.8 miles to Cardiac and then a 1200 ft drop over 5.2 miles into Muir. I looked at an article from Journal of Applied Physiology to see how one might split two such grades with equal effort.

Energy cost of walking and running at extreme uphill and downhill slopes

http://jap.physiology.org/content/93/3/1039

Turns out energy cost of walking is different than running but they are mostly independent of pace.  You can run faster than you can walk but for any pace that you can walk instead of running,  you will save about 33% of the energy cost of running by walking at that same pace.  See below for even more nerdy explanation of this article but this gave me a basis for how to split the two section paces preceding Muir.

The best pace to put into the first two sections would probably be slower than what I chose based on overall race pacing with equal intra-race energy expenditure. However, I chose to more closely model the actual racer data.  I added a scaling factor which resulted in about 20% increase in pace for the Stinson and Cardiac sections to 2015 racer data.

After all of the above, another normalizing / scaling factor made sure all of the race model pace times would add up to exactly the desired finish time.

Miwok Race Map

This Miwok race map is mostly self explanatory and is a photoshop of Tia’s map from the Miwok website.

Miwok Race Map

Click the link below. It will take you to dropbox. Dropbox may ask you to create an account or sign in. You don’t have to.  Click the ‘X’ to close the sign-in dialog.

Click ‘download’ in the right upper corner of dropbox and proceed to download. The file is a jpeg image.

Miwok Quick Ref Card by Mike Harris

Mike as done as nice job on this race reference card that you can carry with you.  Here it is in pdf form.  It makes 3 sets of cards.

Mike Quick Ref Card

Click the link below. It will take you to dropbox. Dropbox may ask you to create an account or sign in. You don’t have to.  Click the ‘X’ to close the sign-in dialog.  Click ‘download’ in the right upper corner of dropbox and proceed to download.